AAA expects nearly 80 million Americans to travel at least 50 miles for Thanksgiving this year, marking a 1.7 million increase from 2023 and 2 million more than pre-pandemic levels in 2019. The updated travel forecast now includes travel starting Tuesday before Thanksgiving through the Monday afterward, reflecting the evolving flow of holiday trips.
“Thanksgiving is our busiest holiday for travel, and we’re predicting record numbers across all modes of transportation,” said Stacey Barber, VP of AAA Travel. “Post-pandemic demand for adventure and family reunions is still growing.”
Road Trips Dominate
Expect crowded highways: 71.7 million people plan to hit the road—a 1.3 million jump over last year, even exceeding 2019’s numbers. Lower gas prices could help; national averages may dip below $3/gallon for the first time since 2021, with some states seeing prices between $2.25-$2.50 per gallon.
Rental cars will also be in high demand, with Atlanta, Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Oahu, Orlando, and Phoenix topping the list for pickup spots, according to Hertz. Wednesday pre-Thanksgiving and the Monday-Tuesday post-holiday will be the busiest rental days.
Taking to the Skies
Air travel is forecasted to set a new Thanksgiving record as 5.84 million people take to the skies, a 2% uptick over last year and an 11% leap from 2019. Domestic fares are up 3%, while international travel is seeing a surge, partly driven by a 5% drop in overseas ticket prices and increased demand.
Buses, Cruises & Trains on the Rise
Other modes, like buses and cruises, are seeing nearly a 9% boost over last year and an 18% increase from 2019. Cruising, in particular, has rebounded with a 20% spike in bookings.
When (and When Not) to Drive
Traffic data from INRIX suggests avoiding Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, while Thanksgiving Day itself is ideal for travel. For post-holiday returns, hitting the road early Sunday or Monday morning is best. Metro areas like Boston, New York, LA, Seattle, and DC are expected to experience doubled congestion during peak times.
Top Travel Spots
Warm-weather destinations dominate the list for domestic travelers, with Florida cities, Hawaii, and Las Vegas leading the charge. Internationally, Europe and the Caribbean hold strong appeal for those seeking sandy shores and cultural exploration.
AAA’s holiday forecast, developed with S&P Global Market Intelligence, relies on macroeconomic data, travel trends, and surveys to project travel volumes. The Thanksgiving period now spans from November 26 to December 2 to capture extended travel patterns.