Autonomous self-driving cars will start slow and grow -while HMI tech grows quickly

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google-carBoth Google and automakers are working on autonomous driving. Google’s aka Alphabet’s pan are for a fully self-driving car and while automakers are taking small steps of autonomous functions. The increased functionality in vehicles will also increase HMI technology such as touchpads, touchscreesn, HUDs and gesture technology. IHS Automotive offers two reports that give insight to the growth of self-driving vehicle and mult-modal-controlled HMI infotainment systems.

Self-Driving Numbers for Google and Automakers

IHS findings further support the IHS Automotive global forecast for nearly 12 million in annual sales of self-driving cars in 2035 with nearly all autos in use are likely to become self-driving cars or self-driving commercial vehicles on some level sometime after 2050. 

In 2014, Google adjusted its approach to focus on fully autonomous vehicles – those that have the ability to operate without a driver at all (also referred to as level 5, or L5). This approach, if successful, will vastly expand the market for vehicles, offering Car-as-a-Service (CaaS) opportunities for business and individuals alike. Depending on their success, IHS Automotive anticipates low-speed L5 self-driving vehicles could enter volume deployment in 2025 with full deployment of L5 self-driving vehicles at any speed five years later.

Traditional vehicle manufacturers are taking a slightly different tack in their development processes, working independently and with leading suppliers to develop and begin implementation of technologies that help to augment driver behavior. Automakers are doing this by adding incremental autonomous functions as autonomous driving technology improves over time, and IHS expects this to continue. Autonomous functions including adaptive cruise control, lane keeping assist, advanced braking functionality are already available, and traffic jam assist is next with autopilot features for highway driving and parking in the near future.

Automakers sales of self-driving cars will start slowly with small-scale availability around 2020, and continuing for the following five years.

Volume deployment by the OEMs will begin in earnest in 2025 and will grow rapidly after that, according to IHS forecasts. A summary of the growth is as follows:

Self-Driving Car Deployment Growth
In Millions 2020-2024 2025 2030 2035
Global Sales 0.15 0.25 3.79 11.8
Share of Sales (%) 0.03% 0.23% 3.19% 9.44%
Cumulative Sales 0.15 0.4 10.5 51.4
Share of light vehicles in operation (%) 0.001% 0.026% 0.60% 2.68%

Source: IHS Automotive sales forecast, December 2014; volumes represented in millions.

HMI Via Voice, Hands Gesture & Touch

Another recent IHS Automotive analysis of user interfaces in future automotive infotainment systems finds increased global commonality and complexity.  The Multi-Modal Interface Concept is a major growth driver in building new and innovative HMI (human-machine interface) platforms, according to the analysis by IHS Automotive.

IHS Automotive is forecasting growth across all HMI input and output categories, with the exception of a few technologies that may eventually become obsolete due to a competing replacement (e.g., resistive touch screens vs. capacitive touch screens).In the all-new IHS Automotive User Interfaces Report , several automotive HMI technologies are forecasted to have 20 percent or greater compound annual growth rates on global sales. Such technologies include touch screens, touchpads, head-up displays, haptic feedback, proximity sensing and gesture recognition.

“Most of these technologies have such significant compound annual growth rates for two reasons – first, they are relatively new to the automotive industry,” said Mark Boyadjis, senior analyst and manager, infotainment and HMI at IHS Automotive. “Also, they provide unique and valuable usability characteristics that make driving and operating infotainment systems easier on consumers.”

With the amplified growth of touch creen smartphones and tablets, IHS Automotive estimates sales of vehicles with touch screen interfaces will grow from 16.7 million units in 2015 to more than 61 million units in 2021.

Meanwhile, center stack display systems are forecasted to surpass 54 million unit sales in 2018, according to IHS, while an increasing number of vehicles will have two or more unique displays in their center stack — for infotainment, HVAC, rear cameras, vehicle diagnostics and more.

IHS Automotive estimates about 50 percent of all vehicles with speech recognition globally also will offer off-board speech recognition in 2021.Overall, IHS Automotive anticipates automotive user Interfaces have considerable growth prospects as automakers work to deploy solutions to meet the expectations of their buyers, while keeping them focused on the road at the same time.

Multi-modal HMI design will continue to influence the growth of individual HMI components, giving an even greater opportunity for OEMs to differentiate their products from the competition. Meanwhile, HMI component suppliers are well positioned to profit from this trend and build on industry momentum.